Plurality of finance professionals are expecting W-Shaped Recovery
GTreasury is committed to helping its customers and the industry at large make actionable decisions throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. With that in mind, we are active supporters of the Treasury Coalition, an industry-wide effort led by Strategic Treasurer.
The Treasury Coalition has launched the Global Recovery Monitor, an “immediate and ongoing survey of COVID-19 impact and response.” The survey collects ongoing impact and reaction data from corporate treasury professionals around the world to provide flash insights into the current sentiment of the industry. The survey will be completed every other week.
“By a wide margin, a plurality of finance and treasury professionals expect to see a W-shaped economic recovery play out with a 2nd economic dip this fall. At the same time, the expected date of a financial recovery has been pushed back to 11 months,” said Michele Marvin, vice president at GTreasury. “It is imperative that organizations plan for this possible double dip with operational improvements and even new technology adoption to ensure accurate cash visibility, management and forecasting during continued volatility.”
Expected Economic Recovery Predictions
- Recovery Curves: A W-shaped recovery model, with a second dip expected before rising to pre-COVID levels, is the dominant expectation among 40.9% of respondents. A quarter of respondents expect a “swoosh” and 20% see a “U-shaped” recovery curve, while only 3.4% expect a V-shaped recovery.
- Liquidity: This was the fifth week in a row of improving outlook for organizational liquidity. Bank lines of credit, central bank liquidity and commercial paper all remained positive.
Cautionary and negative outlooks:
- Improving perspectives about accounts receivable: For eights week in a row, organizations reported a negative outlook for accounts receivable, although these concerns have lessened each week. Although still negative, this period saw the most improved perceptions about accounts receivable since the survey began.
- Financial normalcy: Predictions of when businesses will return to the state prior to COVID-19 went from 8 months in the last survey to 11 months in this survey.
- Economic recovery: In this period, only 36% had a negative outlook of a recovery happening in the next three months (down from 62% in the last survey). The optimism of a recovery in next 12 months was 57% this week, up from 53% in the last survey.
Here are key graphics from this week’s report. If you cite or use any of the statistics or graphics in social media or reports, please attribute them to the Treasury Coalition: Global Recovery Monitor.