Plurality of finance professionals still expecting W-Shaped Recovery
GTreasury is committed to helping its customers and the industry at large make actionable decisions throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. With that in mind, we are active supporters of the Treasury Coalition, an industry-wide effort led by Strategic Treasurer. The Treasury Coalition’s mission is to provide insights into the current sentiment of the industry surveying corporate treasury professionals around the world. A new survey is completed every other week.
“The continued expectation of a W-shaped recovery as selected by respondents seems to match the U.S. Stock Market results this month,” said Mathilde Sanson, chief customer officer at GTreasury. “But meanwhile, 54% of the attendees polled during the results webinar had a more negative economic outlook or about the same as mid-April. This, to me, indicates some continued stress, since April was the height of the economic impacts to date.”
Expected Economic Recovery Predictions
- Recovery Curves: Expectations of a W-model recovery, with a second dip, dominate the view with 43.5% (up from 40.9% in the previous survey), outpacing the combined expectations of swoosh (22.2%) and U-shaped (20.4%) recovery curves.
- Expected changes to GDP: Quarter over quarter expected GDP changes indicate a moderate recovery through 2020 Q4 (23% expect 8%+ gain in GDP in Q4) with very positive improvements expected by 2021 Q1 (39% expect 8%+ gain in 1Q 2021).
- Liquidity: This was the sixth survey in a row of improving outlook for organizational liquidity. Bank lines of credit, central bank liquidity, and commercial paper all remained positive.
Cautionary and negative outlooks:
- Improving perspectives about accounts receivable: For nine surveys in a row, organizations reported a negative outlook for accounts receivable. Although still negative, perceptions about accounts receivable continued to improve.
- Financial normalcy: Predictions of when businesses will return to the state prior to COVID-19 went from 11 months in the last survey to 10 months in this survey (April 2021).
- Economic recovery: This week, only 31% had a negative outlook of a recovery happening in the next three months (down from 36% in the last survey). The optimism of a recovering in next 12 months was 53% this week, down from 57% in the last survey.
Here are key results from this week’s report. If you cite or use any of the statistics or graphics in social media or reports, please attribute them to the Treasury Coalition: Global Recovery Monitor.
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